Short answer: possibly, but over many years, not overnight. A Goldman Sachs economist estimates that up to 9% of workers, roughly one in 11, could be displaced during the AI transition, and he expects most of that to come during the next recession rather than now. This week Barclays became a fresh example, cutting about 5,000 jobs while calling AI the “icing on the cake” of its cost push, not the main driver.
Key takeaways
- Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimates up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the AI transition, up from his 6% to 7% estimate in August 2025.
- He expects the job losses to bunch up in downturns. While the economy is healthy, companies have had less reason to cut aggressively.
- Barclays is cutting about 5,000 jobs, about 5% of its workforce, in 2026. About 1,000 are already gone. Its CEO said simpler processes and technology drove most savings so far, with AI as a smaller part.
- U.S. layoffs blamed on AI have cooled: 3,961 in September, compared with 120,136 so far in 2026, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
- A new Pew analysis finds men have seen more job growth than women in AI-exposed occupations, especially among workers without a college degree.
How many jobs does Goldman Sachs think AI will displace?
What happened: On October 22, Fortune reported on a new note to clients from Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs. Under Goldman’s forecast that AI eventually lifts productivity by 15% in the U.S. and other rich economies, Briggs estimates that up to 9% of workers could be “displaced during the AI transition,” with slower hiring weighing on employment by another 3%. Earlier this year, on a Goldman podcast, he put the 9% figure at about 15 million workers over a decade. In August 2025, Briggs and colleague Sarah Dong had estimated 6% to 7%.
“Displaced” means a worker loses a job because their tasks are automated. It does not mean they never work again. Most displaced workers in past technology waves found new jobs, though often after a painful gap and sometimes at lower pay.
To build the estimate, Briggs looked at 25 jobs hurt by earlier technology, such as photo processors, movie projectionists, proofreaders, file clerks and bank tellers. Employment in those jobs fell 25% on average in the five years after decline began. He calls those “likely upper bounds” for AI.
Why it matters: Goldman’s history lesson says timing depends on the economy. Briggs wrote that “automation-related labor disruption is limited when the overall economy is healthy but accelerates during cyclical slowdowns.” In plain English: companies tend to use bad times to make cuts they were already planning. He also said that even with 9% displaced, the unemployment rate would rise by less than one percentage point in any given year, because the losses are spread out.
The other side: This is a forecast, not a count. Briggs noted that only 23% of U.S. establishments have built AI into regular work, and Fortune reports that AI-attributed layoffs have pulled back sharply from their spring peak. On the other hand, he flagged reasons the number could be too low: displacement ran higher in the late 1990s and early 2000s tech boom, which he calls the period “most widely viewed as comparable to today.”
Is Barclays cutting jobs because of AI?
What happened: On October 22, the British bank Barclays reported third quarter profit of 2.3 billion pounds, up 12% from a year earlier, and confirmed plans to cut about 5,000 jobs, or about 5% of its workforce, by the end of 2026. Chief financial officer Anna Cross said about 1,000 roles have already gone. About 60% of the cuts relate to support functions, and the actions aim to save 1.1 billion pounds in 2027. TechRadar reported most cuts fall on operational and functional roles in UK retail banking, with some in investment banking.
Why it matters: This is a big, profitable employer openly linking AI to a smaller workforce. “AI makes our people more productive,” Cross said. CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan said “AI has an important role to play and may have a more important role to play in the future.”
The other side: Barclays did not say AI is the main reason. Venkatakrishnan said the bank’s “deep investments” in technology and in simplifying processes are “driving the bulk of the efficiency gains,” and called AI the “icing on the cake.” Reuters also noted the bank’s profit missed forecasts because of weak bond trading, a reminder that ordinary cost pressure plays a role too.
How many layoffs are actually blamed on AI right now?
The best public tally comes from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which counts the reasons U.S. employers give when they announce cuts. Its numbers show AI is a big reason this year, but a fading one in recent months.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| U.S. announced job cuts, September 2026 | 43,281 |
| Cuts citing AI, September 2026 | 3,961 (about 9%) |
| U.S. announced job cuts, January to September 2026 | 573,195 |
| Cuts citing AI, January to September 2026 | 120,136 (about 21%) |
| Goldman estimate of workers displaced during the AI transition | Up to 9% |
| U.S. establishments using AI in regular work (Goldman) | 23% |
| Barclays planned cuts in 2026 | About 5,000 (about 5% of staff) |
Announced cuts are not the same as jobs lost, and a company that cites AI may be bundling other reasons. Still, AI was the top reason given so far this year. Separately, Fortune reported that Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates AI is costing the U.S. more than 10,000 roles a month, with growth in data center construction jobs partly offsetting slow declines in fields like accounting, advertising, office administration and legal services.
Are women more exposed to AI job risk than men?
What happened: On October 22, the Pew Research Center compared employment growth from 2017 to 2019 with January 2023 to June 2026 across 480 occupations, scored by how much generative AI can do or assist with their tasks. Pew found that “employment growth has been slower for women than for men in occupations with more exposure to AI.” Among workers with a high school diploma or less, men’s employment rose 8.8% for each one-point rise in exposure, while women’s fell 9.5%.
Why it matters: Many women without degrees work as secretaries, receptionists and customer service representatives, jobs Pew places in the middle to upper part of its exposure scale. For workers with a bachelor’s degree, Pew found no significant gap.
The other side: Pew is careful to say the link between AI exposure and job growth “is not necessarily direct,” since many other changes happened in the same years. This is a pattern worth watching, not proof that AI caused it.
The TrustNoRobot Risk Check
| Question | AI job displacement, October 2026 |
|---|---|
| Exposure | Highest for routine office and support work: clerks, administrative staff, back office banking and customer service. Lower for hands-on and in-person jobs. |
| Evidence | Mixed. Company announcements and layoff tallies are real but self-reported. Goldman’s 9% is a model built on past technology, not a measured result. |
| Speed | Slow for now. AI-blamed cuts fell sharply after spring, and most workplaces have not built AI into daily work. Goldman expects it to speed up in a recession. |
| Cushion | Moderate while hiring holds up. Weaker for workers without degrees in exposed roles, and weaker in a downturn, when new jobs are harder to find. |
The other side: why the picture is not all bad
Productivity gains can raise wages and create new kinds of work. Some of that is already visible: AI-related construction hiring roughly offset the shortfall in AI-exposed industries over the past three months, according to Goldman’s note as reported by Fortune. And Goldman’s own model says the unemployment rate would rise by less than a point in any year, even in its 9% case. The honest takeaway is that the risk is real but gradual, and that the timing of the next downturn may matter more than any single AI launch.
What this means for you
If your job is mostly routine office or support work, use the calm period to prepare, not to panic. List the tasks you do each week, mark which ones AI tools can already handle, and build skills in the parts that need judgment, relationships or hands-on work. Keep an emergency fund if you can, because Goldman’s research suggests cuts arrive fastest when the economy turns.
Check your own role in our Job Exposure Explorer, then walk through our five-step guide to measuring AI risk to your job. For more context, read what the Fed’s Beige Book found about AI and hiring and our look at AI and new college grads.
Frequently asked questions
How many jobs could AI replace, according to Goldman Sachs?
Goldman economist Joseph Briggs estimates up to 9% of workers, roughly one in 11, could be displaced during the AI transition, which he has described as about 15 million workers over a decade.
When will AI job losses happen?
Goldman expects them to be limited while the economy is healthy and to speed up during the next downturn, based on how past technology waves played out.
Why is Barclays cutting 5,000 jobs?
To cut fixed costs. Barclays said technology investment and simpler processes drove most savings so far, with AI as an added boost its CEO called the “icing on the cake.”
How many U.S. layoffs have been blamed on AI in 2026?
Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 120,136 announced cuts citing AI from January through September 2026, about 21% of all cuts, but only 3,961 in September.
Sources
- Fortune, “AI could displace one in 11 workers, Goldman says, but the layoffs are likely waiting for a recession” (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Fortune, “AI is killing 10,000-plus jobs per month and 9% of jobs are at risk, analysts say” (Oct. 23, 2026)
- Reuters via Business Standard, “Barclays to cut 5,000 jobs in AI-led cost drive as Q3 profit rises 12%” (Oct. 22, 2026)
- TechRadar, “Barclays to cut 5,000 jobs while handing work over to AI” (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas, September 2026 Job Cuts Report (Oct. 1, 2026)
- Pew Research Center, “Men Are Experiencing More Job Growth Than Women in AI-Exposed Occupations” (Oct. 22, 2026)
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