Category: AI Failures

SOMETHING ABOUT MARY

It was sept 13^thIt was 1916. Erwin, Tennessee. Apparently, a town full of bloodthirsty rednecks. Here is why I say that. They hung a fucking elephant. Killed it. Over 3000 people watched it. Look it up. Go ahead. I’ll wait till you get back. The elephants name was Mary.

A hobo (named “Red” – apparently for his neck) had joined the circus just the day before. He decided to beat the poor animal for no reason.  He apparently thought that was what ‘animal handling’ meant when he took the job. He did what we would today call ‘animal abuse’. The poor beast picked the fool up and threw him against a wall. Then she walked over and calmly stepped on his head. Most reasonable people would have applauded.

Mary got back in line (this happened during the circus parade) and marched with the other animals as if nothing had happened. The show went on that night. But the next day… the next day was another matter.

People started complaining. People wanted to see justice. People from one town started organizing to bring a cannon over and blow Mary the Elephant up. The governor apparently got involved. Everyone wanted to see Mary dead. Mary only had one friend. Her friends in the circus.

But the circus people did what they do. They let the show go on. The sheriff arrested Mary. The people of Erwin put her on trial. I am not sure if she had a public defendant or not. In any case – she was found guilty and sentenced to death by hanging. They brought out a 100-ton derrick car with a crane. They strung up Mary. The chain broke the first time – and Mary broke her hip. But that 2^ndtime they had a winner. They buried her next to the tracks.

WHAT DOES THIS STORY TELL US ABOUT TODAY?

Could this happen today? Probably. Maybe not in Erwin Tennessee, but generally people are not radically smarter or more empathetic than they were 100 years ago. There certainly have been improvements in how we treat the other inhabitants of this planet, but we continue to push larger mammals to the brink of extinction with no plan in place on how to share an Earth that is increasingly smaller every day. While we have seen a radical reduction in the number of animals that are being used in the Circus, it’s not clear that’s a great thing. For many the only exposure they had to these types of animals was the circus. But in any case.. there are clearly parts of the world where this type of animal abuse is not rare. Sometimes it’s done for tourist, sometimes for other reasons. But humans continue to abuse animals. We are not that different from what we were in 1916 as a people.

WISDOM OF THE CROWD?

But this is not a blog about animal rights or animal abuse. Those are topics that are important. Very important. But I want to talk instead about something else. We often hear people talk about the “Wisdom of the Crowds”. This is the idea that if we have a hundred people that all guess at how many jellybeans are in a jar, that the average guess is actually usually the most accurate. In other words – by averaging guesses about some topic you can actually come closer to the truth – over say – just listening to an expert. This technique has been proven to be effective a number of times in experiments. When it comes to quantitative estimations, whether of stocks, jellybeans, football scores or any of a number of things like this – the crowd often out performs the individual.

It’s often touted as what make a direct democracy so attractive. If the crowd has more wisdom than the expert politicians – then why can’t we just get rid of them. If the crowd has more wisdom that (say) the Electoral College – let’s just lose that historical appendix and move on smartly.

EVIL OF THE MOB

Humans can sometimes be pretty good. Humans can also be pretty damn evil. But when we find ourselves in mobs we tend to do the worse type of evil things. Things that are still remembered 100’s of years later as acts of extreme evil. Like hanging an elephant. This is the counter to the “Wisdom of the crowds” argument. We need checks and balances because we are human. We need the checks and balances to ensure that we don’t do really evil things. Like slavery (which was eventually eradicated). Like rushing into wars. Like Nazi Germany. Like “drinking the coolaid” literally or figuratively.

WOULD ROBOTS RULE BETTER?

So what is the best form of government?

Mobs are known evil doers. Dictators are not an acceptable alternative. Some types of indirect democracy with serious checks and balances seems to be the current best choice for somewhat fair government oversite. But it’s not perfect. With the rise of populism we are seeing a form of the Mob that is effecting countries around the world doing things that are ultimately against the best interest of the majority of people in those states.

But what about Robots?

It has been suggested that robot overlords might do better that an indirect democracy, mob rule or any of another similar experiments in government that we have been executing over the last 1000 years.

The argument goes like this. In the near future, Robots will be smarter, more dispassionate and able to judicate differences both between their constituents as well as between countries.

Do you buy it? Do you want to end up like Mary someday?

The organization behind TrustNoRobot is now a non-profit! Our mission is to promote humans above technology. Our simple belief is that technology should work for humans and better their condition and never have a negative impact on humanity. Please find it in your heart to donate to this important cause.

… Twice is Perversion. This is a somewhat famous quote by the enormously famous Voltaire. Creepy looking dude huh? What does the quote mean? Outside of the more lurid interpretations it has clear meaning for any situation. Do something once for the experience .. but if you do it again, you own it. One time you can explain. Two times you must have liked something about it.

And so it goes with our current political climate. Voltaire deeply influenced our constitutional framers. He was a favorite of Ben Franklins as they were both in the same freemasonry lodge for a number of years… the venerable “Lodge of the Nine Sisters“. This lodge was influential in organizing French support for the American Revolution, and was deeply disliked by the King and court.

When Voltaire died there was a ceremony at the lodge that indicates the level of support for the friendship and of the french in helping America get its start described here:

The hall was draped in black, lit only dimly by candles. There were songs, speeches, and poems attacking the clergy and absolutism in all forms. Voltaire’s niece presented a bust by Houdon (Houdon, a member, also did a bust of Franklin for the lodge, which is now in the Philadelphia Museum of Art.) Then a flame of light revealed a grand painting of the apotheosis of Voltaire emerging from his tomb to be presented in heaven by the goddess of Truth and Benevolence. Franklin took the Masonic wreath from his head and solemnly laid it at the foot of the painting. Everyone then adjourned to the banquet room, where the first toast included a tribute to Franklin “the captive thunder dying at his feet” — and to America.

-Lodge of the Nine Sisters and Voltaire’s memorial service

Education of the Masses

The interesting thing about the American experiment is that even way back then they knew that it would not work unless the population was morally superior and that they were educated. In fact – for the most part these were considered one and the same. A free society is only possible for a virtuous, well educated population. Part of one’s Education was creating Virtue as well as knowledge of the science, math, political knowledge, the arts and all the components identified in the Renaissance as important to the enlightened person.

“Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become more corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters.”
-Benjamin Franklin

“To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, is a chimerical idea.”
-James Madison

“[V]irtue or morality is a necessary spring of popular government.”
-George Washington

“It is certainly true that a popular government cannot flourish without virtue in the people.”
-Richard Henry Lee

“Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”
-John Adams

Likewise – to a man the founders thought that educating the people had to be a primary responsibility of a free moral government.

“No people will tamely surrender their Liberties, nor can any be easily subdued, when knowledge is diffused and Virtue is preserved. On the Contrary, when People are universally ignorant, and debauched in their Manners, they will sink under their own weight without the Aid of foreign Invaders.”
-Samuel Adams

Laws for the liberal education of the youth, especially of the lower class of the people, are so extremely wise and useful, that, to a humane and generous mind, no expense for this purpose would be thought extravagant.

-John Adams

A primary object should be the education of our youth in the science of government.

-George Washington

“If Virtue & Knowledge are diffused among the People, they will never be enslav’d. This will be their great Security.”

-Samuel Adams, letter to James Warren, February 12, 1779

And Yet – We are failing to educate

So with all this ample evidence that the two most important things for a free Democracy, where do we find ourselves today? With regard to Education – our K-12 is considered one of the poorest among 1st world countries. We are failing to educate our population. In a recent Pew Research America was found lacking:

So the U.S. is behind Portugal in Science, Slovakia in Math and Taiwan in Reading. These results are not inspirational.

All of this in spite of the fact that the US has a Department of Education with over 4,000 employees (2018) and an annual budget of $68 BILLION dollars. The charter of the department is to “establish policy for, administer and coordinate most federal assistance to education, collect data on US schools, and to enforce federal educational laws regarding privacy and civil rights.”^[6]

But this is clearly not working. We are falling behind. Our Democracy is becoming perverted because our population is not educated, nor virtuous. We were actually better at K-12 with regard to the world when the Department of Education did not exist. It became huge under George Bush’s “No Child Left Behind” act, where it basically went from a budget of around $12B to its current budget. There are some in congress that would like to see the whole department abolished. For instance, on February 7, 2017, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) introduced H.R. 899, a bill to abolish the department. Massie’s bill, which is one sentence long, states, “The Department of Education shall terminate on December 31, 2018.”^[28]

But eliminating the department seems to be a hasty idea as well. In the grand scheme of things – it’s not been given enough time to succeed. How can we change our trajectory though? Spending more for worse results seems to be a fools bargain. How can we turn this around? Why can’t that $68 BILLION be spent directly on the kids or with the schools? Why do all the “Grants” that get distributed result in larger administrations, while our PTA’s sell cakes to provide notebooks to kids? Most importantly:

Why are our teacher’s not fairly compensated?

If our founders had envisioned an America that was at best mediocre with regard to Education – what would they have done? Based on their resumes they would have taken a leadership role. They would have innovated and found a way for America to show the world the value of education. If education is one of the most important things – then educators must be one of the KEY elements in ensuring success. First – how does America line up with the rest of the world on paying its educators:

Luxembourg puts everyone to shame.

“In Luxembourg, one of the richest countries in the world, an inexperienced teacher can expect to make more on his or her first day than teachers in nearly all other countries can hope to make in their entire careers.”

-Business insider

The U.S. pays reasonably well. But it’s not enough. It’s been clearly shown over and over than 1 inspirational teacher is worth 1000 schlubs there to collect a paycheck.

“The teacher workforce is the single most important ingredient in schools in determining how children are going to fare in their education,”

-Mishel.

What if America decided to REALLY support lower education? What if America decided that only people with a PHD in the subject they are teaching should be teaching the next generation of leaders? What if these educators got paid really competitive wages?

Public school teachers earned average weekly wages of $1,137 in 2017, while all other college graduates working full time earned $1,476 per week, according to a report out today from

– Economic Policy Institute.

So even after controlling for various factors that affect pay — such as education, age, and years of experience — teachers still earn 18.7% less than comparable workers.

But what if the $68 BILLION that we currently spend with the department of Education were used to pay teachers!

By taking a lead in teacher pay the U.S. can thwart one of the bigger problems – lack of teachers! More than 30 states recently reported teacher shortages in mathematics for the 2018-2019 school year, according to the U.S. Department of Education. More pay creates interested graduates to pursue teaching!

In fact – there are a number of horrible outcomes that are attributed to low teacher pay including:

Low teacher pay contributes to shortages and a disinterest in the teaching profession

• A 2018 National Center for Education Statistics survey found that less than half of all public school teachers were satisfied with their pay; 45 percent of teachers who reported dissatisfaction said they would “leave teaching as soon as possible” if they could find a better-paying job.¹⁶

• The percentage of teachers leaving the teaching profession has also increased in the past 25 years.¹⁷ Teacher turnover is now twice as high in the United States as in many other countries, including high-performing nations such as Finland and Singapore.¹⁸

• Teacher turnover is exacerbated in states with low pay. Teacher attrition is highest in Arizona, New Mexico, and Louisiana, where the average teacher salary is $50,000 or less.¹⁹

• Fewer young people are showing interest in the teaching profession. Despite a slight uptick in the 2015-16 school year, enrollment in teacher preparation programs is still substantially less than in the 2008-09 school year and shows an overall declining trend.²⁰ Forty-five states have experienced declines in teacher preparation program enrollments.²¹

Our founders were clear. Education is a cornerstone to freedom. Currently the U.S. is failing at its responsibility to educate the next generation (or the last 5 generations many would say).

It’s time to raise teacher pay dramatically. If you look at what teachers make relative to other job’s – it’s pathetic. In NOT ONE state do teachers make above average relative to other professions.

Thats a direct statement of what we as a country believe the importance of teaching our youth to be.

It’s time for a change. Teaching should be the most coveted job in our society. Teachers across the board should be paid like our top Lawyers, Doctors and CEOs. Not like a car repairman or bartenders.

So if our founders were here today … would they try this experiment again? Or would they leave it at Once is Philosophy?

The organization behind TrustNoRobot is now a non-profit! Our mission is to promote humans above technology. Our simple belief is that technology should work for humans and better their condition and never have a negative impact on humanity. Please find it in your heart to donate to this important cause.

Whats relevant? Whats not?

“As you ramble through Life, Brother,
Whatever be your goal.
Keep your eye upon the doughnut,
And not upon the hole.“

13 January 1929, Charleston (WV) Daily Mail, pg. 6, col. 6:
Sign in Quarrier street restaurant. Advice for those who drink coffee and eat “sinkers.”

The original AI Winter

Artificial Intelligence is not new.  Another thing that is not new is people over-promising  and under-delivering results around AI. In fact AI in the modern era (I won’t even go back beyond the 1950’s but if your curious there is a great article here) has suffered a number of funding declines as the market has realized that that particular version of AI’s  promises were not going to pan out.

After the initial heyday of AI from the 50’s until the mid 70’s substantial research dollars were squandered. As companies and government agencies realized they had been hoodwinked on the immediate value, they pulled dollars out of those investments. This AI winter lasted pretty much up until the early 80’s.

The agencies which funded AI research (such as the British government, DARPA and NRC) became frustrated with the lack of progress and eventually cut off almost all funding for undirected research into AI. The pattern began as early as 1966 when the ALPAC report appeared criticizing machine translation efforts. After spending 20 million dollars, the NRC ended all support. In 1973, the Lighthill report on the state of AI research in England criticized the utter failure of AI to achieve its “grandiose objectives” and led to the dismantling of AI research in that country.^[85] (The report specifically mentioned the combinatorial explosion problem as a reason for AI’s failings.)^[86] DARPA was deeply disappointed with researchers working on the Speech Understanding Research program at CMU and canceled an annual grant of three million dollars.^[87] By 1974, funding for AI projects was hard to find.

-History of AI

The second wave of hype started in the early 80’s and went through the early 90’s. This wave included Expert Systems, Logic Programming and LISP Machines (anyone remember Symbolics).

Again, a huge amount of over promising produced a hype wave – that ultimately lead to a ‘market correction’.  I had personal experience with this one.

As a young student, with recently minted PROLOG skills, I was eager to jump into AI in the late 80’s I was sorely disappointed when to my surprise a lot of the AI companies just went away by the time I was hitting the job market. I ended up writing code in the CASE tool business for most of the 90’s until the Internet became the new sexy toy. All during this time – AI was mostly no-where to be seen. Over 300 AI companies went out of business by 1992.

Jumping the Shark Again?

Why with all the past evidence of over hyping AI do companies still fall into this behavior? Simple. Its the money stupid.

“Recent research by ‘Price Intelligently’ shows a 30% increase in purchase intent from companies to buy products that have an AI integration in product offerings.”

– Jiaqi Pan

But people are only so willing to pay for poor results. When they are disappointed again and again – well – eventually they go spend their money elsewhere. And that’s pretty much what has been happening. I literally don’t have the time to provide a comprehensive piece dedicated to AI failures over the last couple of years… lets just touch on a few.

IBM Watson for Oncology

“This product is a piece of s***. We bought it for marketing and with hopes that you would achieve the vision. We can’t use it for most cases,” a doctor at Florida’s Jupiter Hospital was quoted as saying in the documents, according to STAT.

-Customer feedback from internal IBM documents (while at the exact same time IBM touted major success to the press)

Everyone has heard of Watson. Its hard not to with all the marketing dollars IBM spends on it. But they failed to deliver on the very specific narrowly focused goal they set out to achieve. This was not “General AI”. This was just pattern matching on X-Rays using Machine Learning.

…the healthcare news publication Stat published a report claiming “internal IBM documents” showed the Watson supercomputer often spit out erroneous cancer treatment advice and that company medical specialists and customers identified “multiple examples of unsafe and incorrect treatment recommendations,” even as IBM was promoting its AI technology.

–Did IBM OverHype Watson?

This resulted in a major shakeup at IBM. People lost jobs and funds we reallocated. While the CEO of IBM still firmly maintains that they did not hype the results – fewer and fewer people are listening to her.

Seven Dreamers Laboratories dreams no more

Seven dreamers laboratories was a Japanese company that specialized in the development of AI, robotics, and healthcare devices. It raised over $104M to build diverse products like a machine that would fold clothes, but also medical devices that aid breathing and 3D measurement devices.  With regard to their last run (the folding machine)

Clearly, the product was too ambitious. Seven Dreamers had planned a simpler, but still potentially-impressive version that merely folded and sorted clothes. The first-gen model still required a complex combination of robotics, image analysis and artificial intelligence to achieve its goals, however.

–engadget (Laundroid company folds before its giant robot does)

The company folded yes (ok – that was funny) but not before wasting an enormous amount of investor moneys. Remember that. I can promise you investors do.

Uber self-driving car kills a pedestrian

Not much really needs to be said on this one. Yes… she was probably jaywalking. Yes the controller was playing video games. But someone died. At the hands of a AI driven car.

Uber’ self-driving software declined to take action even after the car’s sensors detected the pedestrian. US National Transportation Safety Board’s preliminary report on the accident made it clear that the software failed.

We may eventually get self driving cars – but it won’t be in the way that is currently envisioned. More on that in a future blog.

I could go on forever. Go search “AI Failures” and you will have a lot to read. From Amazon’s AI recruiting tool being a sexist pig to Microsoft’s Twitter bot becoming a racist, misogynistic anti-semite. AI failures are the norm. And it’s not just me noticing.

The Investment community takes note

Perhaps more disconcerting is the investment community’s reaction to the current state of the AI market. They don’t like it. Not one bit. Below is a graph of deals done with AI companies over the last 8 years. As you can see – 2019 is set to be a major drawdown in terms of investment into AI by the VC communities. While its only July – its clear that the VC community views AI as having Jumped the Shark.

2019 is looking like a major step back for AI.

One thing about VC’s. They put their money where they think they will get a return – and they are generally pretty good about getting it right over time. They tend to watch the donut and not the hole. 
The organization behind TrustNoRobot is now a non-profit! Our mission is to promote humans above technology.   Our simple belief is that technology should work for humans and better their condition and never have a negative impact on humanity. Please find it in your heart to donate to this important cause.